Zinc price waiting to do more signals, tires brewing prices matters
1, the tire business profits was better than last year: Rubber fell from a high level, the tire companies to make room for profit. Tire companies this year, the overall turn for the better last year, operating rates remain at 80-90% better than the historical period, the whole year without off-season. Finished goods inventory and raw material inventory is generally not high, in 20-30 days. Domestic tire consumption to keep up, is conducive to raw material demand. "Double reverse" effect has been basically digested, in the synthetic rubber prices soared, part of the tire factory to adjust the proportion of natural rubber and synthetic rubber, and brewing tires prices matters.
2, Butadiene resource constraints Synthetic rubber operating rate: Butadiene resources as a major factor restricting the operating rate of the device, its supply and demand conditions and price levels will have a direct impact on synthetic rubber, butadiene, styrene butadiene the market price. Beginning in 2015, the market weak equilibrium state, the device operating rate by the impact of raw materials, cost, price, operating rate is relatively stable, is expected in the next few years, synthetic rubber market structure will not have much change. Natural rubber and synthetic rubber spreads upside down should not be the norm, will gradually narrow the demand for tire companies this year than expected, the supply base with last year, is expected next year, 3,4,5 months will be a new round of the rising cycle.
3, the possibility of large-scale acquisition of japonica city: the northeastern region producing a small amount of rice harvest listed, of which Jilin super rice and Heilongjiang region long grain rice, rice flower varieties price was higher than the market price; Ordinary pellet rice price is lower than the price of Tuoshi, eastern Heilongjiang centralized purchase price 2900-3040 yuan / ton, and in the down channel. Therefore, it is expected that Heilongjiang and Jilin Province ordinary grain rice start-up japonica rice purchase policy is more likely, but by this year's harvest progress is slow, and water high impact, policy start time or will be extended.
4, japonica rice market outlook is expected to hover near the market price: expected late in the northeastern producing areas of japonica rice, especially in Heilongjiang, the market price will be more hovering around the market price, Progress closely related.
5, the fundamentals of support, zinc prices waiting for the new bullish signal: the current refinery generally have a rainy day, the initiative will be very low production cut, which is also in the industrial products before the report repeatedly stressed, as long as less than fully buy mine Of the time, the refinery will not take the initiative to stop production, which depends on China's smelting enterprises for low profits or even zero profit has a strong tolerance. So the logic of the mine will continue, the recent performance of relatively weak zinc prices, which is experienced before the sharp Masukura upstream reasonable adjustment. Balance of supply and demand from the mine point of view, this year, about 30 million tons of the gap, the current large-scale short-term funding of zinc is less likely, so zinc is more like waiting, waiting for some more clear signs of profiteering.